We want you to be prepared for the charlatans of statistics out there. That is why we introduce you to some of their favorite tricks and juggleries. Please remember: Despite their bad reputation, statistics have a great importance attached to them. Those who know how to handle them will be less open to manipulation. In a fictitious study, the average age at the time of death for various professions is collected. The of the study are astonishing. While pilots and professional football players die under the age of 60 on average, teachers and physicians live ificantly longer.
What is the reason for this?
Dangerous working conditions, too much stress at the football field, too many aircraft accidents? The reason is that in this study, professions are compared that are not open to a direct comparison, because a third variable besides profession and age disrupts the investigation: the average age. Real professional footballers only came up in the 60s and the aero industry has grown exponentially in the last years. Accordingly, there are on average more young pilots and professional footballers than young teachers or physicians.
If a footballer or pilot dies at young age due to an accident or illness, those cases carry more weight than in the other professions, because they are offset by less cases that die at high age. Clothes make the man and digits make s - the more precise s are, the more trust we put into them.
How to lie with statistics
Though the historian had exaggerated immensely the real was closer to 15,he made a very well informed impression and the victory of the Greeks shone in a glorious light. But spurious accuracy as a means of persuasion is not a thing of the past: If today an economic report says that each year Germans do 1,, hours of overtime, this should be taken with caution. Calculated on the basis of approximately 40 million employees in Germany, this would be exactly It is equally likely that the real is anything between 33 and 40 hours per person. So it would be more honest to say that the of overtime hours in Germany is anywhere between one and two billion according to estimations.
Roosevelt, the 32nd president of the United States.
This sounds exaggerated, but it points towards a problem in statistics. Each time there are extreme values in a group, the mean should be taken with a pinch of salt - especially if the sample is not very big. The next year, the King family is moving to this town.
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Thanks to owning a trading company, their annual household income is USD million. The average household income now is USD 80, - according to statistics. Therefore, extreme values do not lose their influence on the average, even in larger groups.
The arithmetic mean has a competitor: the median. Every lawyer seems to earn the quite impressive amount of USD 20, per month. The median, however, tells us that the mean value is USD 7, This value is located exactly in the middle - three lawyers earn less, three have a higher income. If an average lawyer earns USD 20, or 7, per month is depending on the choice between arithmetic mean and median.
The responsible editor drew this conclusion because statistics revealed that 75 percent of all women are murdered by their husband. Declaring marriage a breakneck thing is a fallacy. The author only looked at a subset of the data base: Correctly he should not have asked how many married women are killed by their husbands, but how many married women pass away violently compared to unmarried women.
In this town in the last year it was not a very good year for the local police three married women were battered to death by their husbands. On top of this, one unmarried woman was murdered.
‘how to lie with statistics’ gets bill gates’ thumbs up
Demise County has a population of 6, married and 1, unmarried women. The likelihood of passing away violently therefore is 1 in 2, for the married women three homicides in 6, womenbut 1 in 1, for single ladies. The conclusion is that the wedding band is a clear lifesaver in Demise County on second position - behind moving out of this area.
The climate is changing, the sea level rises; does this mean that the U. A logical conclusion. But in reality meteorologists cannot foresee the exact effects of global warming. Even the most stringent prognoses can only conditionally be carried further. The sample, meaning the people that participated in the research, can be chosen one way or another.
Lying with statistics
But the manipulation of samples can also be more subtle. If you want to prove that people have become more phlegmatic, you should conduct research that carries out the interviews between 8 and 10pm by calling people at home. The likelihood that more homely people are included in the survey rises naturally - absolutely independent of age, sex, income or region. The opposite result can be reached if you conduct the same survey on a Sunday afternoon in a park. Professional researchers therefore not only include different target groups but also ensure that the interviews are carried out on different workdays and the method includes both telephone interviews and interviews in public areas e.
Many interviewees will affirm, because they do not want to be seen as the environmental bad guy. In the same breath, they are classified as a nuclear opponent. Insidious questions are a great instrument for manipulation.
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The problem is, that the original questions are not mentioned any longer once the statistics are published. Graphical representations of statistics are often improved for cosmetic reasons. The most important thing to keep in mind is the scale. Diagrams emphasize important data points to make a statistical result more accessible - but sometimes they overshoot and are simply wrong. Such misleading diagrams are often found across various media outlets.
Editors can manipulate scales by choosing different lengths for the intervals or not starting a bar at the zero point. But how many women do we talk about? Assume that the ABC party had four delegates and now adds four more to this. This is in fact an increase of percent.
At the end, the ABC party now has 8 women - amongst more than representatives. The absolute share of female delegates therefore is only eight percent. If they add eight more ladies, they can only claim an increase of 20 percent, while in fact it would have been advantageous for them to claim that they added percent more female representatives to their group than the ABC party eight instead of four.
Or to stress that their parliamentary party has percent more female delegates than the ABC group 32 more. You see: You can claim nearly everything with percentages. Who would have thought that this young vintner this year has sold 13 bottles of Sauvignon Blanc, 7 bottles of Cabernet Sauvignon and 3 bottles of bubbly wine to his customers?
Sinking unemployment figures are always celebrated by the authorities. Subsequently, nobody asks who those unemployed are and how their is counted. Unemployment is defined by a person of a certain age who is actively looking for a job and is unable to find work.
As long as the reader does not know, how the unemployment figures are calculated, statistics cannot do any harm. But if the statistician reaches into his magic hat and presents a to us, which only he knows the basis of, we should be skeptical. If you want to keep track of economic developments, the of people contributing to social security systems is much more illustrative than the unemployment figures. Not every probability for a statistical incidence can be captured correctly based on pure intuition. It is reported in the news that red fever is beginning to spread in that country.
All tourists are advised to have themselves tested for that illness. The next day, your doctor tells you that the test has a default of one percent for people who do not carry the virus and no fault for infected people.
What does that mean? Of healthy people tested, 99 are recognized as healthy. One person will be declared ill although she is in fact healthy. If a person is ill, the test result will clearly show this. Two days later, you check back in with your doctor. In the meantime you have researched that only every thousandth tourist from the tropical country has caught the bug.
You think positively, but then you get the shocking result: The test says that you are infected. How likely is it that you really suffer from red fever? But is that right?
As every thousandth tourist is infected, there will be around ill people amongst thosetourists. All infected people will be correctly recognized by the test. That is an impressive persons out of the group of 99, In total, people got diagnosed correctly as ill and wrongly. That is how much you should trust your gut feeling when it comes to probabilities.
Definition lying with statistics
There are a lot of entertaining books on the topic, some of which served as an inspiration for this article. Please note that the definitions in our statistics encyclopedia are simplified explanations of terms. Our goal is to make the definitions accessible for a broad audience; thus it is possible that some definitions do not adhere entirely to scientific standards. Single s Corporate Solutions Universities.
Definition Lying with statistics We want you to be prepared for the charlatans of statistics out there. Precise blarney Clothes make the man and digits make s - the more precise s are, the more trust we put into them. Double-faced trends The climate is changing, the sea level rises; does this mean that the U.